North Carolina
Men - Women
2013 - 2014 - 2015
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
56  Ryan Walling JR 31:37
124  John Raneri SR 31:54
138  Stephen Mulherin SO 31:56
143  Pat Schellberg SR 31:57
287  Mark Derrick SO 32:26
344  Scott Morgan SR 32:34
413  Joe Sansone SO 32:42
791  Michael Jacobs SR 33:19
866  Mitchell McLeod SO 33:27
1,221  Matt Valeriani SR 33:58
1,331  Braedon Koerwitz JR 34:05
1,767  Dan Mykityshyn SR 34:40
2,293  Bryan Noreen JR 35:31
National Rank #18 of 311
Southeast Region Rank #1 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 79.3%
Most Likely Finish 18th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.6%
Top 10 at Nationals 9.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 55.1%


Regional Champion 34.4%
Top 5 in Regional 98.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ryan Walling John Raneri Stephen Mulherin Pat Schellberg Mark Derrick Scott Morgan Joe Sansone Michael Jacobs Mitchell McLeod Matt Valeriani Braedon Koerwitz
Roy Griak Invitational 09/27 736 32:41 31:23 32:12 32:56 32:34 32:50 33:57
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/17 600 31:33 32:19 31:50 31:54 32:50 33:32 33:55
Wisconsin adidas Invitational - B 10/17 32:39 33:20 35:02
ACC Championships 10/31 553 31:27 31:51 32:16 31:58 32:20 32:38 32:25 33:15 33:21 33:06
3 Stripe Invite 11/08 33:42 34:04
Southeast Region Championships 11/14 527 31:37 32:06 31:47 32:05 32:13 32:07 32:23
NCAA Championship 11/22 452 31:23 31:47 31:46 31:55 32:09 32:41 32:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 79.3% 17.5 463 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.3 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.4
Region Championship 100% 2.3 82 34.4 29.9 18.3 10.9 5.2 1.2 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 94.0% 62.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
John Raneri 80.6% 99.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Stephen Mulherin 80.3% 105.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Pat Schellberg 79.9% 108.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Mark Derrick 79.3% 179.5
Scott Morgan 79.3% 196.5
Joe Sansone 79.3% 209.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Walling 5.3 4.7 9.7 12.3 11.5 9.4 7.4 6.6 4.7 3.8 3.9 3.0 2.8 2.1 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
John Raneri 11.4 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.0 4.4 4.4 3.9 3.2 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.3
Stephen Mulherin 12.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 4.1 5.2 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.3 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.2
Pat Schellberg 12.9 0.3 1.0 2.4 3.5 4.6 5.7 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 3.9 3.6 2.8 3.0 2.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.6
Mark Derrick 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 3.2 2.9 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5
Scott Morgan 36.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.8
Joe Sansone 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 34.4% 100.0% 34.4 34.4 1
2 29.9% 100.0% 29.9 29.9 2
3 18.3% 62.1% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.6 6.9 11.4 3
4 10.9% 28.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.4 7.8 3.1 4
5 5.2% 10.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 4.7 0.5 5
6 1.2% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 79.3% 34.4 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.3 20.7 64.2 15.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Iowa State 42.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 35.0% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 22.6% 1.0 0.2
Princeton 14.7% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 13.6% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 7.6% 1.0 0.1
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Texas-Arlington 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Texas A&M 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.3
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 8.0